{
  "name": "AI Cycle Situational Fund v1.0",
  "name_zh": "AI 周期态势基金 1.0",
  "as_of": "2026-05-27",
  "currency": "USD",
  "status": "research_simulation",
  "initial_nav": 1000000,
  "disclaimer": "Research simulation only. Not investment advice, not a trading instruction, and not a real fund.",
  "thesis": "Long AI infrastructure and monetization, avoid pure narrative exposure, and reserve dynamic protection for crowded semiconductor phases.",
  "phase_view": {
    "cycle_phase": "late expansion plus early mismatch, before possible critical transition",
    "civilization_cycle_terms": ["相", "相位", "位", "势", "错配", "临界", "跃迁"],
    "core_question": "Is AI CapEx translating into durable cash flow faster than infrastructure, energy, valuation, and regulation constraints accumulate?"
  },
  "portfolio": [
    {
      "bucket": "AI core compute",
      "weight": 0.25,
      "allocation": 250000,
      "positions": [
        { "ticker": "NVDA", "weight": 0.08, "allocation": 80000, "role": "AI factory core compute and accelerator ecosystem" },
        { "ticker": "AVGO", "weight": 0.06, "allocation": 60000, "role": "custom silicon, networking, and hyperscaler AI infrastructure" },
        { "ticker": "TSM", "weight": 0.04, "allocation": 40000, "role": "advanced foundry bottleneck" },
        { "ticker": "AMD", "weight": 0.03, "allocation": 30000, "role": "second-source accelerator and inference optionality" },
        { "ticker": "ASML", "weight": 0.04, "allocation": 40000, "role": "lithography constraint behind advanced nodes" }
      ]
    },
    {
      "bucket": "Cloud and AI platforms",
      "weight": 0.22,
      "allocation": 220000,
      "positions": [
        { "ticker": "MSFT", "weight": 0.07, "allocation": 70000, "role": "Azure, Copilot, enterprise AI distribution, agent workload" },
        { "ticker": "GOOGL", "weight": 0.05, "allocation": 50000, "role": "TPU, Gemini, search and cloud AI monetization" },
        { "ticker": "AMZN", "weight": 0.05, "allocation": 50000, "role": "AWS AI infrastructure and enterprise distribution" },
        { "ticker": "ORCL", "weight": 0.05, "allocation": 50000, "role": "AI cloud capacity, sovereign cloud, and infrastructure demand" }
      ]
    },
    {
      "bucket": "Power and data center bottlenecks",
      "weight": 0.23,
      "allocation": 230000,
      "positions": [
        { "ticker": "VRT", "weight": 0.05, "allocation": 50000, "role": "thermal, power, and data center critical systems" },
        { "ticker": "ETN", "weight": 0.04, "allocation": 40000, "role": "electrical equipment and grid modernization" },
        { "ticker": "PWR", "weight": 0.04, "allocation": 40000, "role": "power infrastructure construction and grid services" },
        { "ticker": "CEG", "weight": 0.04, "allocation": 40000, "role": "nuclear and clean firm power for AI load growth" },
        { "ticker": "VST", "weight": 0.03, "allocation": 30000, "role": "merchant power exposure to load growth" },
        { "ticker": "GEV", "weight": 0.03, "allocation": 30000, "role": "grid, power generation, and electrification equipment" }
      ]
    },
    {
      "bucket": "Networking, memory, and optical links",
      "weight": 0.15,
      "allocation": 150000,
      "positions": [
        { "ticker": "ANET", "weight": 0.04, "allocation": 40000, "role": "AI cluster networking" },
        { "ticker": "MRVL", "weight": 0.03, "allocation": 30000, "role": "custom silicon and data infrastructure" },
        { "ticker": "MU", "weight": 0.03, "allocation": 30000, "role": "HBM and memory cycle exposure" },
        { "ticker": "COHR", "weight": 0.03, "allocation": 30000, "role": "optical components for AI data center scale-out" },
        { "ticker": "LITE", "weight": 0.02, "allocation": 20000, "role": "optical communications optionality" }
      ]
    },
    {
      "bucket": "Agent applications and security",
      "weight": 0.10,
      "allocation": 100000,
      "positions": [
        { "ticker": "NOW", "weight": 0.02, "allocation": 20000, "role": "enterprise workflow automation and agent layer" },
        { "ticker": "CRWD", "weight": 0.02, "allocation": 20000, "role": "AI-era endpoint and identity security" },
        { "ticker": "DDOG", "weight": 0.02, "allocation": 20000, "role": "observability for AI-native infrastructure" },
        { "ticker": "PLTR", "weight": 0.02, "allocation": 20000, "role": "AI operating layer and government/enterprise workflows" },
        { "ticker": "SNOW", "weight": 0.02, "allocation": 20000, "role": "enterprise data layer for AI workloads" }
      ]
    },
    {
      "bucket": "Cash and protection budget",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "allocation": 50000,
      "positions": [
        { "ticker": "CASH_TBILLS", "weight": 0.03, "allocation": 30000, "role": "dry powder and drawdown control" },
        { "ticker": "SMH_PUT_BUDGET", "weight": 0.02, "allocation": 20000, "role": "research placeholder for semiconductor crowding protection" }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "tracking_rules": {
    "weekly": [
      "Update AI phase notes: compute, cloud, power, networking, agents, security.",
      "Record major news that changes supply, demand, pricing, regulation, or CapEx ROI.",
      "Mark each bucket as strengthen, neutral, weaken, or mismatch."
    ],
    "monthly": [
      "Recalculate simulated NAV from current prices.",
      "Compare bucket performance against thesis.",
      "Write one correction: what the market taught us this month."
    ],
    "quarterly": [
      "Compare with new 13F filings from Situational Awareness LP and other AI-focused managers.",
      "Review hyperscaler CapEx, cloud growth, AI revenue disclosures, and data center/power backlog.",
      "Rebalance only if phase evidence changes, not because of noise."
    ],
    "risk_limits": [
      "No single public equity target weight above 10% at initiation.",
      "Core compute bucket should be reduced if AI CapEx continues rising while cloud/AI revenue slows for two reporting cycles.",
      "Increase cash/protection if semiconductor valuation and positioning become extremely crowded.",
      "Increase agent application exposure only after revenue/usage evidence becomes durable."
    ]
  }
}